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The USD/JPY exchange rate is showing slight growth amid Trump's speech. Nevertheless, there is still pressure on the US currency following reports of potential de-escalation between the US and Iran, including discussions about a possible ceasefire.
According to Axios, the US, Iran, and regional intermediaries are discussing the terms of a possible 45-day ceasefire that could be a step towards ending hostilities. Reuters has reported a two-phase ceasefire plan that could potentially come into effect as early as Monday and would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Although final clarity on these initiatives is still lacking, the mere fact of diplomatic contacts is somewhat improving global sentiment and applying pressure on the dollar. For the yen, inflationary risks related to rising oil prices remain a key factor.
Increased energy costs could intensify price pressures in Japan and support expectations of further gradual tightening by the Bank of Japan, although Japan's status as a net energy importer simultaneously poses risks to economic growth. Markets are currently pricing in about a 70% likelihood of a rate hike at the April meeting, with another two hikes expected by the end of the year.
Another limiting factor for USD/JPY growth is the threat of currency intervention. The pair is still near the 160.00 mark, and Japanese authorities have repeatedly warned of their readiness to respond to excessive volatility in the national currency. This keeps some traders from opening aggressive positions, further strengthening the dollar against the yen.
In the US, expectations regarding the Fed have shifted noticeably: investors now believe that rates could remain unchanged until 2026, whereas the market previously anticipated at least two cuts this year. The March ISM Services PMI, which came in at 54, down from 56.1 in February and below the consensus of 55, provided an additional benchmark for market participants.
From a technical perspective, the pair is close to the round level of 160.00, which is the nearest target. Oscillators are positive, indicating an advantage for bulls. Price support has been found at the 9-day EMA, below which the 20-day SMA lies. If prices do not hold these levels, the next support will be at 168.70, below which bulls will begin to lose strength. However, breaking the round level of 160.00 will provoke the pair to challenge the March high.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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