01.04.202620:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast. Gold maintains positive positions amid U.S. dollar weakness

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to show intraday strength and is currently holding above the $4,700 level, nearly reaching the 20-day SMA.

Statements by President Donald Trump on Tuesday about the possible completion of the U.S. military operation against Iran within the next two to three weeks, along with comments that Tehran does not need to sign an agreement to end the conflict, boosted market optimism. This sentiment, in turn, put pressure on the U.S. dollar and became one of the key factors supporting demand for commodities.

At the same time, the United States is deploying additional Marine units to the Middle East to reinforce a contingent of about 50,000 troops already in the region. This marks the largest expansion of the U.S. military presence in the past twenty years. Meanwhile, reports that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pushing for military action to restore the functioning of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing concerns about an escalation of the regional conflict, which is contributing to rising oil prices.

In turn, rising energy prices are fueling inflation expectations and triggering speculation about further tightening of Federal Reserve policy. These factors may limit the weakening of the U.S. dollar and restrain the growth of precious metal prices. Tonight, from Wednesday to Thursday, Donald Trump will address the nation regarding the war with Iran. This event, along with the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data at the beginning of the new month, may set the tone for further movement in the XAU/USD pair. Later, investor attention will shift to the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments remain the key catalyst for market movements, capable of sustaining elevated volatility in financial markets and shaping current trends in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, bulls still need to break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs to take control of the market. At the moment, the 100-day SMA serves as solid support for gold, below which prices would return toward the 200-day SMA. Oscillators remain negative for now, but bulls have gained a chance.