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The EUR/USD pair failed to develop a more meaningful rebound on Tuesday: recovery attempts were limited to the 1.1490 level, after which the release of weaker Eurozone Consumer Price Index (HICP) data increased pressure on the euro. As a result, the pair remained near a two-week low.
Preliminary inflation data showed that in March, the headline HICP in the Eurozone rose by 2.5% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.7% but significantly higher than February's 1.9%. Monthly growth accelerated to 1.2% compared to 0.6% a month earlier, while core HICP (excluding food and energy prices) unexpectedly declined to 2.3% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 2.4%.
Nevertheless, the impact on the euro was limited: the data does not change the base scenario, according to which the European Central Bank will likely be forced to raise interest rates in the coming months amid persistent inflation above the 2% target, further fueled by rising energy prices due to the war in Iran.
ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed last week the regulator's readiness to tighten policy even if the expected inflation spike proves temporary, emphasizing that the bank will act in response to a significant and sustained deviation from its target. At the same time, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continues to boost demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the euro.
According to media reports, including The Wall Street Journal and other outlets, US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of ending the military campaign relatively soon, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. However, he has publicly reiterated threats to strike Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran refuses to reopen this strategically important route. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have described US peace proposals as "unrealistic" and rejected the possibility of direct negotiations, maintaining high uncertainty and preserving the dollar's status as a key safe-haven asset.
From a technical perspective, the pair has found support at the 1.1450 level; if this level fails to hold, prices may drop toward the March low. Resistance is seen at the psychological level of 1.1500. A break above it would allow prices to challenge the 20-day SMA, after which bulls would have better chances of gaining control. However, as long as oscillators remain negative, bulls lack sufficient strength.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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