31.03.202609:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump's Recent Statements Hit Oil Prices

Oil prices sharply declined after reports surfaced online that US President Donald Trump told his aides he was prepared to end military operations in Iran, even if the vital Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. The price of West Texas Intermediate oil fell and approached the $103 per barrel mark after previously surging nearly 4% following another Iranian attack on a tanker in the Persian Gulf.

The drop in oil prices, which is unlikely to be long-lasting, could have a mixed effect. For oil-importing countries, this is good news, as it helps reduce inflation and stimulate economic growth. However, for states whose economies heavily depend on oil exports, this development is not the best scenario.

Trump's statement, even if intended to de-escalate the conflict—though that seems unlikely—could be perceived by Tehran as a signal to further strengthen its position and increase provocative actions. This, in turn, could lead to new spikes in tension in the region and unpredictable consequences for global energy security.

Any further incidents or escalation of the situation could instantly return oil prices to previous highs, negating the current decline and plunging the global economy back into uncertainty.

According to reports citing administration officials, Trump and his aides assessed that the mission to reopen the Strait would extend the war beyond the planned four to six weeks. This follows the earlier assertion that at the beginning of the week, Brent crude oil was around $113.

It is worth noting that the US president regularly fluctuates between statements about an imminent end to the war and warnings of readiness to escalate military operations. On Monday, Trump stated that the US would blow up power plants, oil facilities, and possibly desalination infrastructure if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Later in the evening, he made the opposite statement.

In response, Iran attacked a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored in Dubai port, continuing the conflict that has been ongoing for five weeks. According to a statement from the Kuwaiti National Petroleum Company, Iranian authorities attacked the tanker "Al-Salmi" in the port of Dubai, which was fully loaded for the transportation of crude oil. This led to a fire and hull damage.

Despite Tuesday's fall in oil prices, the American benchmark index has risen more than 50% in March, marking the largest increase since May 2020, while Brent oil is showing solid monthly growth. The market also remains tense due to the buildup of American troops in the region and the potential deployment of ground forces in Iran.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $106.83. This will allow targeting $113.36, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be $115.40. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will try to take control at $100.40. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push Oil down to a low of $92.54, with a prospect of reaching $86.67.