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Trump's latest tales about Iran led to a slight weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of risk assets.
The dollar sharply declined after President Donald Trump stated that he is ready to end the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. This statement, made against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf, sparked a wave of optimism in financial markets, as investors who had feared an escalation of conflict began to reassess their positions. However, we have heard similar statements many times before, so it is unlikely that the observed bullish market will continue.
During the European session today, particular attention will be paid to macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone, which may affect the dynamics of currency pairs involving the euro. First and foremost, traders should pay close attention to the figures for the change in Germany's retail sales for February. This indicator is an important barometer of consumer activity and internal demand in the Eurozone's largest economy, and any unexpected deviations from forecasts can provoke strong market movements. At the same time, the market is awaiting the publication of German unemployment data. Stability or, conversely, an increase in unemployment can have a direct impact on consumer confidence and, consequently, on retail sales.
Moreover, the March Consumer Price Index data for the Eurozone and the core index will also be in focus. These figures are key to assessing inflationary pressure in the region following the start of the US war with Iran, and they serve as benchmarks for the European Central Bank's future monetary policy decisions.
As for the British pound, several key macroeconomic indicators for the fourth quarter are expected to be released today. Investors will closely monitor changes in GDP figures. These numbers serve as the primary barometer of the country's economic health and can significantly affect the sterling exchange rate and broader market sentiment in Europe. Alongside GDP figures, data on changes in investment levels will also be published. Changes in investment levels can signal companies' readiness for expansion, the implementation of new technologies, and job creation. Additionally, the balance of payments account will also attract attention.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it would be prudent to operate under the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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