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Oil prices have once again risen sharply, a direct consequence of escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil prices, which are poised to show a record monthly increase, have jumped by 3.7% to $116.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices have exceeded $100.
The involvement of Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, combined with the arrival of additional US troops in the region, has caused serious concern in the markets. Traders fear that the expansion of the conflict zone may lead to even greater chaos in energy markets, disrupting established logistical chains and creating supply shortages.
This geopolitical factor is already having a direct impact on the price of black gold. Increased risks associated with oil supplies from one of the key global producing regions traditionally push prices upward. In light of growing concerns about prolonged supply disruptions, traders are once again actively purchasing oil.
The future price dynamics will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. Any new statements or actions from the parties involved in the conflict, as well as military deployments, could lead to even greater fluctuations.
As mentioned earlier, the US has sent thousands of troops to the region, in response to which Iran has announced the mobilization of over one million people, heightening fears of a risky ground invasion. In a Sunday interview, US President Donald Trump stated that he wants to seize oil in Iran and may take control of the export center on Kharg Island, which could provoke serious retaliation from Tehran. Earlier this month, the US already struck military facilities on the island.
The conflict has been ongoing for five weeks and shows no signs of abating. Despite Washington's diplomatic efforts last week, peace talks in Pakistan have yielded no results. Just recently, Trump told reporters that Iran had met most of the 15 demands set forth by the US for ending the war, but he declined to specify which concessions were offered. Iran previously publicly rejected this plan and countered with conditions, including maintaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This would allow them to target $106.86, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The farthest target will be around $113.36. If oil prices decline, bears will attempt to take control of $92.54. If successful, breaking through this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and could push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the prospect of reaching $81.38.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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