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On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair remains under pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty over the escalation in the Middle East. In light of President Donald Trump's escalating rhetoric towards Iran, the market anticipates further steps from Washington in an attempt to reach an agreement. Strong US employment data supports the current balance of power, where geopolitical factors remain a key driver.
The pair is declining amid rising tensions, as demand for the US dollar strengthens.
Investors are adjusting their risk appetite following Trump's new statements, emphasizing that Iran "should take the situation seriously soon" while there is still time. He also noted that Iranian negotiators "behave differently": privately eager to reach an agreement but publicly remaining cautious. Meanwhile, Axios reports that the Pentagon is preparing for a possible decisive operation against Iran, which may involve ground troops.
The US dollar remains resilient, largely due to positive dynamics in the oil market. WTI crude oil prices have jumped more than 2.7%, reaching $93.85 per barrel.
The dollar index (DXY), reflecting its value against a basket of six currencies, has risen to nearly 100.
The rise in oil prices heightens market concerns: participants fear an intensification of the energy shock from the Middle Eastern conflict, which could raise gasoline and natural gas prices. As a result, the main scenario for investors is a continuation of tight monetary policy by central banks, including possible rate hikes, especially amid slowing business activity and the risk of a transition to a stagflation phase.
Recent macro data from the US confirm the resilience of the labor market: the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 was 210k, up from 205k the previous week, in line with analysts' forecasts. This figure reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to focus on controlling inflation and maintaining price stability.
To better identify trading opportunities, focus on Trump's speeches.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term trend is moderately bearish, as the price remains below all simple moving averages and is nearly at the round level of 1.3300. If prices do not hold this level, the next support will be at 1.3250, followed by the March lows.
For bulls to recover losses, they first need to overcome the 20-day SMA, then regain the round level of 1.3400, where the 100-day SMA is located. Above that, the 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA are situated. Only then would the bulls regain control over the market.
However, as long as oscillators remain negative, bears retain the upper hand in the market.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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