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USDX retreated after a strong rally amid the Middle East crisis: on Wednesday, March 11, the index traded around 98.80, pulling back from a 15?week high of 99.70. Markets are waiting for key inflation data (CPI), which could set the near-term trajectory for the US dollar, while geopolitical signals remain mixed.
Downward pressure on the dollar eased after Trump's comments about a possible quick end to the war and falling oil prices, and after reports that the US plans to secure the Strait of Hormuz to protect shipping. At the same time, new Israeli strikes and IRGC operations against regional infrastructure sustain uncertainty. That limits the scope for a further decline in the dollar as a safe?haven asset. More details via the link.
March 2026 marked a shift to "energy terror": Tehran announced a strategy of continuous strikes and issued an ultimatum (demands for recognition of rights, reparations and international guarantees). Attacks on the tankers Mayuree Naree and Star Gwyneth raised the shipping threat level to "critical," making an oil rally a matter of time. Gasoline prices in the US have already jumped roughly 20%, and talk of $200 per barrel has ceased to be purely hypothetical.
Meanwhile, policymakers and markets are counting losses: Washington has allocated $20 billion for ship insurance against an estimated need of $352 billion; the US Navy has about 30 ships in the region, and current calculations show freeing 320 stranded vessels would take around 2.5 years — a horizon the market does not have. The IEA's reserve releases look insufficient against a possible production drop in the Gulf, so the logistical and price consequences could be catastrophic. More details via the link.
US stock indices continue to ride a roller-coaster: the S&P 500 initially rose on rumours that the IEA would release 400 million barrels — which, Trump says, should sharply lower oil prices — while he continues to promise a rapid end to the Middle East conflict. Markets care less about the eventual outcome than about timing — economic prospects and the risk of energy shocks depend on how long the conflict lasts.
In the meantime, the Dow closed at its lowest level so far this year — investors are nervous about a potential hit to the economy. Formally, February inflation (CPI 2.4%, core 2.5%) might have given the Fed scope to ease policy, but the futures market has cut the odds of two 25 bp cuts in 2026 from 51% to 40%. Recent data did not impress: March CPI is likely to accelerate amid higher energy costs, and the Fed's preferred gauge PCE is rising even faster than CPI. This rare situation increases the risk of postponing easing. More details via the link.
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