05.03.202609:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast. Geopolitical Tension Favors Gold Bulls

Gold has been held below the $5,200 level, testing it periodically for strength. Investors remain concerned about the protracted conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid already heightened uncertainty.

Adding to this tension is US President Donald Trump's statement that the US military operation in Iran could last four to five weeks, with new strikes being carried out as long as necessary. This intensifies market nervousness, as reflected in deteriorating sentiment on stock exchanges, and supports demand for gold as a protective asset.

Simultaneously, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the key global energy routes—has triggered a recent sharp spike in oil prices to their highest levels since June 2025.

In response, Iran has targeted critical infrastructure vital for global energy supply and declared that it will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. This fuels fears of a new energy shock that could increase inflationary pressure and force the Federal Reserve to slow down or reconsider its plans for further interest rate cuts.

This scenario helps the US dollar remain close to annual highs and limits the potential for price growth in non-yielding gold. Given the current fundamental backdrop, it seems more rational to wait for a confident breakout and consolidation of prices above the $5,200 level before opening positions aimed at further price growth.

From a technical perspective, prices are actively testing the $5,200 resistance while remaining above all moving averages, which are all trending upward. Oscillators on the daily chart are in positive territory, confirming the dominance of bulls in the market. Based on these indicators and the fundamental backdrop, one can assume that the path of least resistance for gold lies to the north.