04.03.202608:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 4

The US dollar continued its active rise against the euro, pound, yen, and other assets.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has had a significant impact on global financial markets, causing a noticeable decline in the value of risk assets. The geopolitical tension related to this event, provoked by the US war with Iran, has led to increased global uncertainty, prompting investors to flee to more conservative assets. Amid the escalating international situation and the threat of disrupted energy supplies, traders continue to favor safe-haven assets, with the US dollar a primary choice in the currency market.

Today's economic calendar is busy, offering a key opportunity to assess the state of the European economy. The first half of the day will be marked by the release of several important macroeconomic indicators that could significantly influence market sentiment and the dynamics of currency pairs. In particular, special attention will be given to the service sector business activity index in the Eurozone. This indicator is one of the key barometers of the economy's health, reflecting the activity level in one of the largest sectors of most developed countries. Additionally, the composite PMI index will be released, summarizing data from the manufacturing and service sectors. This will provide a more complete picture of the overall state of the European economy.

Moreover, figures for the producer price index, which serves as a precursor to future consumer inflation, and data on the unemployment rate, which is a direct indicator of the labor market's condition, will also be released. The combination of these data will provide traders and analysts with important signals for forming their forecasts and making trading decisions. However, it should be understood that everything is currently tied to the Middle Eastern conflict, so no strong market reactions to the data can be expected.

Regarding the pound, traders will surely focus on data concerning the activity in the services sector. Additionally, the composite PMI index will also be released. These indicators are among the most reliable tools for assessing the state of the British economy, as they reflect sentiment in the business environment and trends across sectors. Traders will closely monitor these figures to determine the resilience of recovery from previous crises and the prospects for British businesses in the near and medium-term future.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly deviates from economists' predictions, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Long positions on a breakout of 1.1610 may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1641 and 1.1672;

Short positions on a breakout of 1.1575 may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1535 and 1.1490;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Longs on a breakout of 1.3335 may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3383 and 1.3421;

Shorts on a breakout of 1.3295 may lead to a drop in the pound towards 1.3255 and 1.3215;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Longs on a breakout of 157.70 may lead to a rise in the dollar towards 157.95 and 158.28;

Shorts on a breakout of 157.40 may lead to a dollar sell-off towards 157.05 and 156.77;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1619, looking for a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.1572, looking for a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3350, looking for a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3292, looking for a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7028, looking for a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6972, looking for a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3702, looking for a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3663, looking for a return to this level.