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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has taken on a less-than-desirable appearance, but it still raises no major questions. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January of last year; only the internal wave structure is periodically adjusted. In my view, the pair has completed the construction of global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, then wave 5 is currently unfolding, and it may take on a rather extended form, with targets reaching as high as the 25th level (1.2500 level).
The internal wave structure of the presumed wave 5 is not entirely clear (upper chart). The upward sequence of waves cannot be considered impulsive due to fairly strong corrective waves. Therefore, it is currently interpreted as a-b-c-d-e. However, if wave 5 becomes extended, its internal structure will also turn out to be quite complex. If that is indeed the case, the wave count will likely be revised more than once. In any case, I expect the EUR/USD to resume its upward movement, and the corrective a-b-c-d-e structure already appears fairly complete.
The EUR/USD fell by 130 basis points on Monday and lost another 100 on Tuesday. The reasons for the drop in demand for the European currency remain the same: the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has triggered capital flight and sent oil and gas prices soaring. Panic dominates the markets due to global uncertainty. Many refineries in the Middle East have halted operations as a result of Iranian missile strikes or have simply ceased to exist. If the conflict ends soon, the region's oil and gas industry could recover relatively quickly. If not, panic and chaos may persist across financial markets for a long time.
In such turbulent times, it is hardly appropriate to talk about the economy. Nevertheless, yesterday the U.S. released the fairly important ISM Manufacturing PMI, which pleased market participants and further boosted demand for the U.S. dollar. Today, the Eurozone published an inflation report, which unexpectedly accelerated to 1.9%, indirectly confirming Christine Lagarde's view. Recall that the ECB president stated last week that inflation should be assessed based on its average over a long period of time. Therefore, the decline to 1.7% year-over-year in January would not serve as grounds for further monetary easing by the ECB. This report could have slightly improved sentiment toward the euro, but the market is currently too focused on developments in the Middle East.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors weighing on the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment may extend as high as the 25th level. At present, I believe the pair remains within global wave 5; therefore, I expect price growth in the first half of 2026. The corrective a-b-c-d-e structure may end at any moment, as it already appears convincing.
I believe it is now reasonable to look for areas and levels to open new long positions, with targets near 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci levels. However, one must now factor in the war in Iran.
On a smaller time frame, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not the most standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does occur. I would remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than rigidly adhere to every single wave. At present, the upward wave structure raises no doubts.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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