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Let's briefly go over the main points of Trump's policies. Economy. In 2025, the U.S. economy grew by 2.1%, and economists predict it will grow about 2% per year in the following years. For comparison, under Joe Biden, the economy grew by nearly 3% annually. As we can see, the terms "economic boom" and "era of revival" are quite elastic concepts. If we were to show Trump his economic results alongside similar figures from the Biden administration, the U.S. president would still claim that Biden destroyed the economy and that he inherited a very poor economic legacy. According to Trump, he has already lifted the U.S. economy from its knees.
Economists also note that even the 2.1% growth in 2025 was driven by massive investments from American technology giants in the field of AI. At this point, it is unclear whether these investments will pay off. Therefore, even 2.1% can be considered somewhat of a "random" outcome.
Trade. I have already discussed trade in my recent articles. Thanks to Trump's tariffs, the situation has not improved regarding the budget deficit, trade balance, or, of course, the national debt. One can only ask, what was the point of the trade war, and what did it achieve? According to Trump, money is flowing into America like a river, but none of the average citizens see this money. The American people only see rising prices in stores and marketplaces. By the way, Trump consistently emphasizes in all his speeches that other countries pay tariffs to access the American market. In other words, in Trump's view, the EU and China are the ones paying, not the Americans themselves, when purchasing various goods. However, economists proved last year that 96% of tariffs are actually paid by Americans. Moreover, many experts openly state that tariffs are simply another form of consumption tax, just under a different guise.
Labor Market. According to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, 180,000 jobs were created in the entire year of 2025. In the last year of Joe Biden's presidency, an average of about 120,000 jobs were created each month, which is still considered very weak. In 2023, the average Nonfarm Payrolls figure was 209,000. In 2022, it was even higher. Draw your own conclusions about the "golden age of Trump".
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors contributing to the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may extend up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect quotes to rise in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c could end at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is advisable to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.
The wave analysis of the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective wave set may soon conclude, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise seeking opportunities for new purchases with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Donald Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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