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The GBP/USD pair fully filled the last bullish imbalance at 100%, reacted at its lower boundary, rose to the upper boundary of the pattern, and the bulls' strength ended there. The trend-based trading signal has so far not performed as expected. Imbalance 14 may trigger a double reaction. Liquidity may also be removed from the lows of February 6. This scenario is possible.
The information background supports the bulls: the US labor market remains weak, and Donald Trump's actions continue to affect global markets. Despite three weeks of weakness in the pound, there is still no bearish pattern present. Even if the decline continues, there are no clear opportunities for traders to open short positions.
The bullish trend for the pound persists, and the chart confirms it. Since November 5, traders have had at least three opportunities to open buy trades, with a fourth opportunity last week. Bullish signals form regularly, and we have not seen bearish patterns for a long time. Even the last bullish imbalance and the last bullish signal are still valid. We are seeing a completely unnecessary drop in the pair, but the market does not move according to my rules. We must adapt to the market.
The information background on Tuesday favored the bears. The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, immediately raising traders' expectations for a Bank of England rate cut at the next meeting. In my view, tomorrow's inflation report could make the chances of another monetary easing almost certain. This is likely the fundamental driver of the current move. By the way, the euro may fall along with the pound, not for its own reasons. Both currencies remain highly correlated.
In the US, the overall informational background remains such that, in the long term, nothing is expected except further US dollar weakness. The situation in the US remains quite complicated. US labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they please. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with a "dovish" decision. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the criminal case against Jerome Powell, the new "shutdown," and the US elite scandal over Epstein perfectly complement the current picture of political and structural crisis in the country. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue their advance throughout 2026.
For a "bearish" trend, a strong and stable positive informational background for the US dollar is required, which is unlikely under Donald Trump. Moreover, the US president himself does not need an expensive dollar, as this would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors remain weighing down the dollar. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in GBP could be considered, but currently, none exist.
Economic Calendar for the US and UK:
On February 18, the economic calendar contains five entries, with UK inflation standing out. The information background may influence market sentiment at least in the morning.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:
For the pound, the picture remains bullish. A new buy signal has been generated and is still valid. The bulls have launched a new offensive that threatens to be long and exhausting. They do not plan to act quickly and aggressively. Why rush if the dollar can be gradually sold? Since the bullish trend is unquestionable, traders can only trade upward based on clear patterns and signals. Imbalance 14, as expected, provided such an opportunity.
As a potential growth target, I considered the 1.3725 level. This level has been reached, but the pound could rise much higher in 2026. There are no limits. The next attractive target is 1.4246 – the June 2021 peak.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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