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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also moved sideways, with a total daily volatility of just over 40 pips. Overall, it can be said that there were no movements in the market yesterday. The price ignored levels and areas because the market was in a flat state. Thus, we are further convinced that traders are waiting for the US labor and unemployment data, and until they are published, they are not willing to risk new positions.
What to expect from the American reports? Generally, it all depends on how closely the actual figures match forecasts. Even weak values for both indicators, if they align with forecasts or are slightly better, could be interpreted by the market as a buy signal for the dollar. However, we believe that even if the American currency strengthens today, it will not affect its long-term prospects. It should be recalled that even with a strong upward trend, the price cannot move only northward every day.
Currently, two important technical points should be noted. First, the price has broken the trend line. Second, the indications of the Ichimoku indicator are now below it. If nothing unexpected or unpredictable happens in the second half of the day today, the British pound is likely to remain above the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals can be identified, but, as can be easily guessed, with a volatility of 40 pips, it is extremely difficult to achieve profits. Unfortunately, volatility is a metric that cannot be predicted.
The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing steadily in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are approaching each other, with non-commercial traders still dominating with... sales. Recently, speculators have been aggressively increasing long positions, so a shift in sentiment could occur soon, though it is unlikely to affect the GBP/USD pair significantly.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Fed will reduce rates in any case over the next 12 months. Thus, demand for the dollar will inevitably decline. According to the latest COT report (dated February 3) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,100 BUY contracts and 4,800 SELL contracts. Therefore, the net position of non-commercial traders has increased by 2,300 contracts over the week.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be understood that there is only one reason: Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise. But when that will happen remains unknown.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has broken the downward trend; therefore, we can expect short-term growth. Certain events may hinder the rise of the British currency or support the dollar, which is inevitable. The price cannot always move in one direction. We still believe that, in the medium term, the British pound will rise amid a weakening US dollar. Thus, local upward trends have a higher priority than downward ones.
For February 11, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763, 1.3846-1.3886, 1.3948. The Senkou Span B line (1.3633) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3619) may also provide signals. It is advisable to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, no significant events are scheduled in the UK, but in the US, the "weekly reports" are expected, as discussed extensively. We will not repeat that. These reports are important and may provoke a strong market reaction, either upward or downward. The pound needs to hold above the Ichimoku indicator lines.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3533-1.3633 if the price breaks below the Ichimoku indicator lines. Long positions will become relevant with targets of 1.3751-1.3763 if the price breaks through the area of 1.3671-1.3681.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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