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Expectations of a big payoff allowed the S&P 500 to post a new record for the first time in two weeks. The rally is now in its fifth day, which clearly underscores the importance of corporate earnings to investors. The healthcare sell?off following news that Medicare rates would remain unchanged did little to help bears on the broad index.
The market focused more on reports of rising cash flows and shareholder payouts at General Motors, causing the stock to rise by nearly 9%. Around a hundred issuers will report Q4 results in the final week of January, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Apple. Wall Street analysts expect the Magnificent Seven to deliver about 20% earnings growth in October-December. Follow the link for more details.
The dollar managed to recover in the first half of Wednesday's session, with the US dollar index rising from Tuesday's low (the weakest since March 2022) of 95.52 to about 96.20. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure, and the USDX is still in a global bear market zone, below the strategic support level at 96.80.
Current dynamics indicate the dollar's rebound is corrective, while the overall trend remains downward. Economists note that long?term structural issues — rising distrust of US trade and foreign policy, politicization of the Fed, and weakening fiscal discipline — weigh on the currency and outweigh a more neutral cyclical backdrop. Follow the link for more details.
As expected, the US central bank left its policy rate unchanged at the January meeting. Market attention therefore shifted to Jerome Powell's press conference. What did they hear? The Fed chair said that the US economy continued to grow at a steady pace in 2025 and emphasized that its fundamentals remain solid.
At the same time, he noted that the rise in public debt follows an unsustainable path and that the budget deficit is unacceptable. Powell stressed the importance of addressing this problem promptly. Regarding future rate cuts, Powell said that the criteria for lowering the policy rate have not yet been established. Follow the link for more details.
The good news for the S&P 500 is that corporate earnings could expand by double digits for a third consecutive year. The bad news is that everyone already knows that. At the end of 2025, not a single Wall Street analyst forecast a decline in the broad index for the new year. Investor surveys were unambiguously bullish. For now, the equity market is meeting expectations, but could this be a case of buying the rumor? How far could selling on the facts take it?
2026 can legitimately be called a year of upheavals. Episodes involving Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and White House threats of new tariffs on Europe, South Korea, and Canada could have driven investors away from US equities. Yet investors largely treat these negative factors as noise. The US economy is still strong, implying solid corporate reports and a buy case for the S&P 500. Follow the link for more details.
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