22.01.202610:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Who will replace Christine Lagarde?

As markets cool after the easing of tensions over Greenland and the risk of new Trump's tariffs, a survey of economists indicates the most likely successor to Christine Lagarde as President of the European Central Bank is Dutchman Klaas Knot.

Knot, whose term as head of the Dutch central bank ended last year, tops the list, with Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos in second place and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel third.

Respondents also singled out ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel as having the best overall skill set to replace Lagarde when her mandate expires next year.

Knot, formerly governor of the Dutch central bank, is viewed as a monetary hawk who holds conservative views on inflation and interest rates. His appointment could shift the ECB toward a tougher policy stance, potentially affecting euro?area growth.

However, the political backstage of selecting an ECB president is always complex and contentious. France, for example, may put forward an alternative candidate to try to preserve influence over Europe's financial leadership. Germany, which traditionally has a strong position in the ECB, will also have its preferences. Thus, despite Knot's leading position in polls, the final choice will be the result of intense negotiations and compromises among EU member states.

This week Croatia's Boris Vujcic was approved as ECB vice president. That is the first step in a two?year reshuffle of the ECB's Executive Board. Vujcic's appointment, coming from the region's east, opens the door for candidates from both the north and the south to vie for Lagarde's role. His moderately hawkish stance is unlikely to be a major stumbling block as euro?area officials seek a balance between the profiles of the ECB's two main policymakers.

Survey participants say that for the ECB president the most important qualifications are an economics education and experience at a central bank. A career in finance and experience running a monetary authority are also valued, as is political and European?institutional experience. According to the survey, gender — which has been contentious in past leadership selections — is among the least important factors.

For now currency markets are largely ignoring such polls, but the closer Lagarde's term gets to its end, the stronger the market reaction to these studies is likely to be.

Technical outlook

EUR/USD

Buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1710 level. Only then will a test of 1.1740 be viable. From there a move to 1.1765 is possible, but achieving that without the support of large players will be difficult. The far target is 1.1785. On the downside, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1670. If there's nobody there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open longs from 1.1610.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only then, a move toward 1.3465 will be realistic, though breaking above that will be quite difficult. The far target is around 1.3490. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3405. If they succeed, a range breakout would be a serious blow to bulls and could push GBP/USD to 1.3380 with a prospect of extending to 1.3360.