22.01.202608:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday strategies for beginner traders on January 22

The dollar has returned to growth. Yesterday, Trump's initial position on Greenland initially scared many, but investors and traders breathed a sigh of relief when the geopolitical escalation did not occur.

The dollar rose against a number of risk assets after US President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on EU countries from February 1. This statement, made amid a reduction in fears of a trade-war escalation, supported the US currency. Investors, who had been watching the prospects for the global economy with caution, perceived the news as a signal of stabilization. Encouraged by the prospect of trade stability, traders began reallocating assets into the US dollar; how long this positive trend will last remains to be seen.

Today, in the first half of the day, the eurozone consumer confidence indicator and the ECB account of the monetary policy meeting are expected to be published. These events will undoubtedly attract close market attention because they can provide valuable information about the current state of the eurozone economy and the ECB's likely future actions. The consumer confidence indicator is an important barometer of European consumers' expectations and sentiment. Its rise signals optimism and a readiness to spend, which in turn positively affects economic growth. A decline in the indicator points to uncertainty and a tendency to save, which can slow economic activity.

The ECB account is no less important. It will provide more detailed information on the discussions held at the last monetary policy meeting and the factors that influenced the decisions. Given that no major decisions were taken at the meeting, the minutes are unlikely to change the euro's direction.

As for the pound, figures on retail sales from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and public sector net borrowing are expected in the first half of the day. CBI retail sales are a leading indicator of consumer spending. An increase in retail sales indicates rising consumer confidence and a willingness to spend, which is positive for the pound. Net public sector borrowing is also an important indicator reflecting the country's fiscal position. An increase in borrowing may indicate a widening budget deficit and could prompt the government to cut spending or raise revenues. Given the budgetary difficulties facing Rachel Reeves, this indicator may receive additional scrutiny from traders.

If the data match economists' expectations, it is better to act using a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data come in much higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is best to use a Momentum strategy.

Momentum strategy (on breakout):

For EURUSD

• Buy on a breakout of 1.1695 with potential upside to 1.1730 and 1.1776;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.1675 with potential downside to 1.1650 and 1.1620;

For GBPUSD

• Buy on a breakout of 1.3435 with potential upside to 1.3475 and 1.3499;
• Sell on a breakout of 1.3416 with potential downside to 1.3404 and 1.3380;

For USDJPY

• Buy on a breakout of 158.80 with potential upside to 159.15 and 159.45;
• Sell on a breakout of 158.60 with potential downside to 158.30 and 157.90;

Mean Reversion strategy (on return):

For EURUSD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1703 when the price returns below that level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout above 1.1670 when the price returns to that level;

For GBPUSD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3441 when the price returns below that level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout above 1.3412 when the price returns to that level;

For AUDUSD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6821 when the price returns below that level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout above 0.6782 when the price returns to that level;

For USDCAD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3835 when the price returns below that level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout above 1.3808 when the price returns to that level;