15.01.202606:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to pay attention to on January 15? Breakdown of fundamental events for beginners

Review of macroeconomic reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and the previous days of 2026 have shown that the market has not yet moved on from the holidays. At least the market retains holiday-like volatility, and the market's reaction to 90% of events is purely formal. Thus, we do not expect strong moves today. Germany will publish its annual GDP report today, and that is a fairly important release. But how many important reports this year has the market already responded to with 20–30 pip moves? In the EU, there is a less important industrial production report. In the UK — monthly GDP and industrial production. In the US, initial jobless claims. As you can see, practically all scheduled data for Thursday is not marked as "important."

Analysis of fundamental events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday, but we do not even see the point of focusing on them. The market at the moment does not react even to important macroeconomic reports that shape the stance of the central banks of the UK, the eurozone, and the US. There is practically no reaction to fundamental events. Otherwise, Donald Trump's actions would already have led to a total collapse of the US dollar, which has been looming for several months. Recall that the dollar can still be considered a safe-haven currency for investors, but can a currency be deemed safe if its country's president openly declares plans to annex Greenland or to support a coup in Iran? Trump apparently renounced an air strike on Iran after receiving a message from Tehran about no civilian deaths among protesters. But the "clouds" over Greenland continue to thicken. The US Supreme Court may soon issue a verdict on the tariffs. A criminal investigation has been opened against Jerome Powell.

General conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to trade completely randomly and with minimal volatility. The euro can be traded today in the 1.1655–1.1666 range, and the pound sterling in the 1.3437–1.3446 range. However, even with strong trading signals, we would not expect a noticeable move.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.