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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair first declined and then rose on Wednesday. At the moment, the pound has consolidated above the 1.3352–1.3362 level. A rebound from this area today would allow traders to anticipate renewed growth toward the 1.3425 level. A consolidation below the 1.3352–1.3362 level would favor the US dollar and a continuation of the decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.
The wave structure shifted to a "bullish" one several weeks ago, but this week it has shifted back to "bearish." The most recently completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the latest downward wave managed to break the previous low. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, and the bears have fully capitalized on it, while the news flow from the US also leaves much to be desired. However, this week new data from the UK have again come in less than positive, significantly increasing the chances of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of England.
The news flow on Wednesday triggered a new attack by the bears. Strong support for the bears came from the UK inflation report, which turned out to be well below market expectations. Both inflation measures (headline and core) fell to 3.2% year-on-year, giving the Bank of England and its MPC committee solid grounds for easing monetary policy today. As a result, the bears have excellent chances to launch another attack on Thursday. However, it should be noted that the UK central bank's decision may be counterbalanced by the US inflation report. While a decline in the pound can be expected following the Bank of England meeting, a weaker-than-expected US inflation report could lead to a decline in the dollar. An inflation reading below 3% would push the FOMC toward a rate cut at its next meeting. The US labor market is recovering poorly and would clearly benefit from another round of monetary easing.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed a second rebound from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and began declining toward the 1.3140 level. A consolidation above 1.3435 would allow expectations for further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category remained unchanged over the latest reporting week; however, this reporting period dates back to November 18, a month ago. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 766, while the number of short positions decreased by 981. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 132,000. As we can see, bears dominated a month ago, but the situation may now be quite different. In the euro, the situation was the opposite even a month ago. Therefore, I do not consider the market for the pound to be "bearish" at present.
In my view, the pound still appears less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency periodically enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in order to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at present no one can be certain of this, as labor market statistics remain insufficient.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
The economic calendar for December 18 contains only five events, four of which are important. The impact of the news backdrop on market sentiment on Thursday may once again be strong.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Short positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. The target has been reached. New short positions may be considered after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level, targeting 1.3294. I recommend considering long positions today on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 zone, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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