18.12.202509:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 18. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.61 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point to buy the dollar. However, losses were recorded on this trade because the pair did not appreciate.

The dollar managed to maintain its advantage against the Japanese yen, but a more vigorous upward trend in the USD/JPY pair has not materialized. The market appears to be pricing in a moderate tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, expecting any interest rate hikes to occur very gradually. Today's key focus will be on the U.S. inflation data, as no significant reports from Japan were published in the first half of the day.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 156.00 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.31 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.31, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from this level. It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.77 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposite levels of 156.00 and 156.31 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 155.77 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.46 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from this level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.00 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 155.77 and 155.46 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price at which to buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price at which a take profit can be set, or profit realized, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price at which to sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price at which a take profit can be set or profit realized, since a further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to remain on the sidelines before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.