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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. Thus, the rise of the European currency may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% — 1.1795. A consolidation of the price below 1.1718 will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Therefore, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It can hardly be called strong, but in recent days the bulls have revived and resumed active pressure. The Fed's monetary-policy easing supports further growth of the euro, and the ECB will not create any problems for the euro in the near term.
On Thursday, the news background in both the U.S. and the EU was essentially absent, but traders were not disappointed and continued to trade the outcome of the previous day's FOMC meeting. Recall that the interest rate was cut by 0.25%, which surprised no one. However, traders seemed to have been waiting for the Fed meeting simply as a trigger to resume active market behavior. The FOMC made no "dovish" statements or promises regarding 2026, which makes the dollar's decline look almost excessive. But I want to remind you that throughout 2025, the information background has been one major problem for the U.S. currency. I believe the dollar may show occasional local growth, but overall, the background remains too weak for bears to attack continuously. Next week the U.S. will release November data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation — and this may be another blow for the dollar. Thus, the Fed meeting simply gave traders a push. In my view, the most interesting developments are still ahead.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 0.0% — 1.1829. A consolidation of the price below 1.1649–1.1680 will again work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but the data is still outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 250,000, while short positions total 143,000.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several major trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy and a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure, especially given Jerome Powell's scheduled resignation in May next year.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
European Union — Germany Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).
The economic calendar for December 12 contains one item, which is of no interest. The information background will not influence market sentiment on Friday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Short positions may be opened today on a rebound from 1.1795 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1718, or on a close below 1.1718 with a target at 1.1656. Long positions could be opened toward 1.1718 on a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone, and today they may be kept open with targets at 1.1795–1.1802.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392 to 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 to 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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