05.12.202509:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 5. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price level of 1.1663 was tested when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair declined toward the target at 1.1640.

The dollar regained some ground against the euro after news that US jobless claims fell significantly last week. While this did not prompt investors to reassess the prospects for Federal Reserve monetary policy, it did offer some hope of a recovery in the labor market. The strengthening dollar pressured the euro, which had previously risen amid expectations of a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank on interest rates.

In the first half of today, GDP figures for the Eurozone for the third quarter and changes in employment levels are expected to be released. Reports on changes in industrial production in France and on retail sales in Italy will also be released. Analysts' expectations are modest, with a forecast of growth of around 0.2-0.3% compared to the previous quarter. However, considering the current economic situation in the region, any positive result will be viewed favorably. More importantly, the labor market's employment level will attract close attention, serving as a key indicator of economic health. A decline in employment could signal upcoming difficulties, while even minor growth would instill hope for economic resilience.

Data on industrial production in France and retail sales in Italy is also of significant interest. An increase in industrial production in France would indicate a recovery in the sector, which has been affected by the energy crisis and supply chain issues. Meanwhile, the report on retail sales in Italy will provide insights into consumer sentiment and purchasing power. Both reports are essential for forming a comprehensive picture of the economic situation in the Eurozone. Weak metrics risk increasing pressure on the euro against the dollar.

For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy euros today at an entry price around 1.1665 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.1694. At 1.1694, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting euro growth is only feasible after positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy euros today if we see two consecutive tests of 1.1650 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. We can expect growth toward opposite levels of 1.1665 and 1.1694.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1650 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1626, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1665 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1650 and 1.1626.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.