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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3186, consolidated above 1.3240 and 1.3294, and reached the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. A rebound of the quotes from this zone would allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a slight decline of the pair toward 1.3294. Consolidation above the 1.3352–1.3362 level will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next level of 1.3425.
The wave situation has transformed into a "bullish" one. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, and the new upward wave easily broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend has now turned bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears worked through it completely, and the U.S. news background also leaves much to be desired.
The information backdrop for both the pound and the dollar was quite interesting on Wednesday and supported the bulls. The main drivers of the pair's growth were the UK services PMI report and the U.S. ADP labor market report. The UK services PMI came out better than expected, strengthening traders' confidence in the resilience of the British economy. The ADP report, on the other hand, triggered a negative reaction because it increased the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. The private sector in the U.S. lost approximately 32,000 employees in November 2025. The layoffs mostly affected small businesses, but the report itself does not fully reflect what is happening in the U.S. labor market. The ADP report does not account for changes in government employment, the agricultural sector, or nonprofit organizations. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is a more complete and accurate indicator of the U.S. labor market. However, the ADP report alone is enough to expect FOMC monetary easing at the December meeting.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 1.3339 retracement level. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3339 will allow us to expect further growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. No new emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" traders category became less bullish in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago—October 14. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,896, while the number of short positions decreased by 7,743. The current gap between long and short positions is roughly 79,000 versus 91,000. However, recall that this data reflects conditions as of mid-October.
In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand on the market, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, while the Bank of England may cut rates once more, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
The economic calendar for December 4 contains two secondary entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be extremely weak.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Short positions today may be considered upon a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 resistance level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3294. Long positions could previously be opened upon a rebound from the 1.3186–1.3214 zone on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3294 and 1.3352. Both targets have been reached. New long positions may be opened upon a close above 1.3352–1.3362 with a target of 1.3425.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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