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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%.
Asian indices rose today, recovering from Monday's sell-off, during which cryptocurrencies were the leaders in declines among global risk assets. Japanese government bonds increased in price after a closely watched auction of 10-year bonds attracted strong demand. The MSCI World Index rose by 0.5% before losing some ground. Futures for European stocks changed little, while futures for American stocks slightly declined during Asian trading. Bitcoin increased amid a volatile session following a drop of more than 5% on Monday.
The yen weakened against the US dollar after reaching a one-week high, when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided the clearest hint yet of a potential rate hike soon. Yields on Japanese government bonds surged this year amid expectations of a growing budget deficit and another rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This is significant, as rising yields on short-term Japanese government bonds may contribute to an increase in yields on other long-term government securities, raising borrowing costs.
In the coming days, the main focus will be on central bank actions: the Federal Reserve's meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, while the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on interest rates on December 19, with a rate increase expected. Swaps now imply an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its meeting this month and a greater than 90% probability at the meeting in January. Just a week ago, the December probability was only 36%.
US Treasury bonds stabilized after falling across the curve in the previous session: the yield on 10-year bonds jumped by seven basis points to approximately 4.1%. The yield on Australian 10-year bonds rose by six basis points.
Silver retreated from its record high. Gold also declined, while oil prices increased. It is evident that the commodity market is experiencing some stabilization as the year draws to a close after a significant shake-up this year.
Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,819. This would help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,837. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,842 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,801. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,784 and open the way to $6,769.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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