12.11.202500:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The Kiwi Gets a Chance for a Corrective Rise. Overview of NZD/USD

The labor market data for the third quarter were very close to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) August forecast, and the results suggest the New Zealand economy's readiness for recovery.

The number of hours worked increased by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter after six months of decline, signaling signs of rising demand for labor. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 5.2% to 5.3%, but is expected to drop to 4.5% in just a few months, indicating an overall positive trend.

This morning, the RBNZ published its inflation expectations for the fourth quarter: 2.29% for one year ahead and 2.28% for two years ahead, virtually unchanged from the third-quarter forecasts. This suggests a continued decrease in inflation, albeit at a slow pace.

The RBNZ's six-month financial stability report did not reveal any significant changes, noting that risks remain elevated due to global uncertainty and weak metrics in some sectors of the economy.

The forecast for the RBNZ's rate has been slightly adjusted. A week ago, the probability of the RBNZ cutting rates by 50 basis points in November was approaching 25%. However, after the publication of employment and financial stability reports, that probability has dropped to about 10%, indicating that the market is convinced of a 25-basis-point cut, as there is no need for a more substantial reduction. This is a weak but still bullish signal for the kiwi, and combined with news that the U.S. shutdown is close to being resolved, it creates conditions for a short-term corrective rise in the NZD/USD pair. Late on Monday night, the U.S. Senate approved a compromise package supported by Trump, and we are now awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives, which is expected soon. U.S. stock indices closed with notable gains on Monday.

Interestingly, the compromise suggests funding part of the government until January 30, meaning if a more comprehensive agreement is not prepared by that time, the U.S. government may once again shut down, and the crisis could flare up anew.

The Trade-Weighted Index (TWI) is currently about 3.6% lower than the August RBNZ forecast, which means the kiwi could receive some support in this area as well.

The calculated price remains below the long-term average, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend or at least a lack of signs of a reversal.

In the previous review, we suggested that the kiwi's decline would continue, and it has—NZD/USD hit a six-month low. The prolonged downturn increases the risk of a correction, but the chances of rising above 0.5677 are slim, with the next resistance at 0.5710/20, making a move to that level seem unrealistic for now. A potential resolution of the U.S. shutdown may provide some support to the kiwi, as it is expected to increase demand for risk assets. However, in any case, any possible rise should be used for new short sales. We anticipate that an attempt to reach the April low of 0.5481 will be made.