10.11.202500:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: "Shutdown" May Last Until November 27: Part 3

How much longer can the "shutdown" last? BBC correspondents believe that in recent days there have been signs of a potential resolution to the "shutdown" by November 27—Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. Senate. Majority Leader John Thune has expressed the view that progress in negotiations might be forthcoming soon. However, Congressman Tim Burchett (Republican) stated that the "shutdown" could continue even after Thanksgiving. In his opinion, the Democrats have every right to negotiate an extension of healthcare subsidies, and he personally does not understand why this cannot be done after the government resumes operations.

Overall, Republicans continue to hold their ground, attempting to push the spending bill through on their terms. It is evident that if they succeed in doing this, there will be no negotiations with the Democrats. Burchett also accused Democrats of securing funding from those who profited from Barack Obama's healthcare program, Obamacare. Therefore, they are not interested in concessions and the resumption of government operations. "It's not about caring for people. It's about power and control," Burchett believes.

Senator Thune also noted that if a compromise is reached, Congress will have to vote on a new bill, since the previous one provided funding only through November 21. This deadline is just 12 days away, necessitating the introduction of a new bill. I certainly anticipate that discussing a new bill may take some time, as it will include spending for a completely different period, which the Democrats may not agree with again.

In my view, there are currently no signs that the "shutdown" will end in the near future. On the contrary, everything suggests that it could last at least until the end of this month. I believe that this is a significant factor for the decline of the American currency, which market participants have ignored throughout October. However, it will not be possible to ignore American negativity forever. The U.S. currency has maximized its gains from the current news backdrop, but what can it rely on moving forward? Therefore, I believe that the issue of a further decline in the dollar's exchange rate is only a matter of time. Now, when both instruments have completed the construction of the corrective wave sets a-b-c-d-e, it is a fitting moment for this outlook.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach the 25 figure. At this time, the corrective wave 4 is being constructed, taking on a highly complex, elongated shape. Its latest internal structure a-b-c-d-e, is near completion or has already been completed. Therefore, I am once again considering purchases, as all recent downward structures appear corrective.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave shape, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c of 4 is presumably nearing completion. I expect the main wave structure to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.