21.10.202508:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 21

The U.S. dollar continues to recover the losses sustained last week after dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials and a worsening of U.S.-China trade tensions.

On the other hand, the euro faced pressure on Monday following the release of weak German Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Although a decline in producer inflation could theoretically support economic growth, the market instead interpreted it as a sign of slowing business activity in Europe's largest economy. This prompted a risk-off reaction, leading to U.S. dollar strengthening and euro depreciation. The absence of significant economic data from the United States further weakened the euro's position and left the currency vulnerable to continued declines.

Today, there are no eurozone data scheduled in the first half of the day, so all attention will turn to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. Markets will closely analyze her remarks for any hints regarding future monetary policy decisions. Although traders already have a solid understanding of the ECB's policy intentions, Lagarde is likely to strike a cautious tone, attempting to balance inflationary risks with the need to support growth. Given the uncertain geopolitical environment and ongoing global risks, the ECB is expected to remain extremely cautious. Any signals of dovish bias may trigger a sharp market reaction, which would be negative for the euro.

As for the United Kingdom, today's only release is the public sector net borrowing data. The market seems to have priced in expectations for moderately positive figures, which means any upside in the British pound may be limited if the data comes in line with forecasts. Investors may treat this report as confirmation of current conditions rather than a catalyst for strategy changes. However, a significant deviation from expectations could lead to a short-term rise in volatility.

If the data is in line with economists' forecasts, the preferred approach is to trade based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the Momentum strategy should be used.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout-Based)

EURUSD

• Buy on breakout above 1.1644, target zones at 1.1674 and 1.1700
• Sell on breakout below 1.1625, target zones at 1.1590 and 1.1545

GBPUSD

• Buy on breakout above 1.3390, target zones at 1.3420 and 1.3450
• Sell on breakout below 1.3371, target zones at 1.3336 and 1.3295

USDJPY

• Buy on breakout above 151.50, target zones at 151.75 and 152.10
• Sell on breakout below 151.20, target zones at 150.85 and 150.52

Mean Reversion Strategy (Rebound-Based)

EURUSD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1662 with a return below this level
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1619 with a return to this level

GBPUSD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3421 with a return below this level
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3372 with a return to this level

AUDUSD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.6525 with a return below this level
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.6492 with a return to this level

USDCAD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.4066 with a return below this level
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.4025 with a return to this level