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At times, it feels as though Donald Trump is acting like a foreign agent with one objective—to accelerate the collapse of the United States from within. Of course, such a claim sounds absurd, given that Trump is an American citizen and owns numerous businesses across the country. But then one is left to conclude only one thing: Trump truly sees himself as the King of the United States and believes he can rule the nation unilaterally—rendering irrelevant the democratic norms that once defined American governance.
American democracy, many now argue, died with Trump's second term. The Democratic Party suffered a resounding loss in the last election and no longer controls either chamber of Congress. As a result, it fails in its fundamental role as the opposition and now takes part in virtually none of the major decisions being made in Washington.
One of the few instances where Democrats were able to have a say was during negotiations over the federal budget for the next fiscal year—a process that has triggered a new government shutdown. It's worth recalling that passing most laws requires a simple majority in Congress—half of the members plus one vote. Since the Republican Party holds the majority in both chambers, it has been able to pass most legislation unopposed. However, in the case of budgetary laws, a 60% vote is required in the Senate—something Trump and the Republicans currently do not have.
As a result, the U.S. government and its agencies have now entered their third consecutive week of paralysis. Trump, meanwhile, continues playing golf unbothered. And while Republicans can legislate without Democrats, Trump also takes matters into his own hands—even enacting decisions that contradict the U.S. Constitution. Example: The president does not have the authority to impose global tariffs. Not even under the Emergency Powers Act of 1974. Two U.S. courts have ruled as such—yet the tariffs still stand, as the courts didn't strike them down. Whether this new approach to trade policy is lawful will now be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in early November, where six out of the nine justices were appointed by Republican presidents. If the court rules in favor of the tariffs, it will mark yet another blow to American democracy.
And the trade war is just one piece of the puzzle. Trump has tried to fire Federal Reserve officials—Jerome Powell among them—even though he has no authority to do so. He's attempted to resolve the immigration crisis and silence protests against his administration by ordering active-duty military troops into U.S. cities.
Protests, by the way, began back in the summer on Trump's birthday—June 14—and have only grown in size and momentum ever since.
Based on the current wave structure analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish wave segment. The wave composition remains entirely dependent on the news cycle—specifically, decisions from Trump and developments in U.S. foreign and domestic policy. The target for this wave segment could stretch as far as the 1.2500 area. At the moment, what we see is the construction of corrective wave 4. It appears to be nearing completion, although it is forming as an unusually complex and extended pattern. Therefore, I believe that holding bullish positions is more advantageous. By year-end, I expect the euro to move toward the 1.2245 level, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are still dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the overall trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is forming as a three-wave correction and appears much more extended than wave 2. The latest corrective three-wave pullback is presumably complete. If this assumption is correct, the upward movement within the broader wave structure is likely to resume. The initial targets would be in the 1.3800 to 1.4000 region.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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