30.09.202519:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on September 30th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of 148.05 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

During the U.S. trading session, several important economic releases should be monitored. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, data on new jobs, and labor market changes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected. A speech by FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee is also scheduled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report will receive the most attention. At the same time, Goolsbee's remarks may spark additional interest, as his view will be one of the few shaping expectations for future monetary policy under conditions of limited information. It should be noted that volatility may rise in such a situation, so traders should remain highly attentive.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.11 (green line on the chart) with a target at 148.43 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.43, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move. A rise in the pair can be expected only if U.S. data turns out very weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.90, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 148.11 and 148.43.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 147.90 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.50, where I will exit shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move. Downward pressure on the pair may persist if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.11, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 147.90 and 147.50 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for intraday traders.