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At the end of yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.48%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.15%.
Today, Asian stock indices increased by 0.4% and are on track to post their sixth consecutive monthly gain—marking the longest winning streak since 2018. Clearly, markets are in no rush to reduce risk after several previous episodes of threats to a US government shutdown. This persistent optimism, however, is supported by a number of factors beyond seasonal stability. First and foremost, there is the expectation of further economic stimulus measures aimed at supporting domestic demand and cushioning potential external shocks. Investors are also closely watching the technology sector, which continues to show strong growth, fueled by innovations in artificial intelligence and renewable energy.
Yesterday, Vice President J.D. Vance stated that, in his opinion, the US government is on track for a shutdown after President Donald Trump's latest last-ditch meeting with top congressional leaders before the October 1 deadline ended without meeting Democrats' demands.
It is apparent that many federal operations will be suspended and employees furloughed or laid off if lawmakers today cannot reach an agreement before the end of the current fiscal year.
Meanwhile, China's manufacturing sector contraction has continued for a sixth month in a row, marking the longest downturn since 2019, as the economy entered a slowdown phase following a sharp surge earlier this year. The Australian dollar rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia made the widely expected decision to keep its key rate unchanged, reiterating its cautious outlook and that future actions will be data-dependent.
In terms of geopolitical events, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they have agreed on a 20-point plan aimed at ending the war in the Gaza Strip, although the prospects for peace remain unclear without direct participation from Hamas.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at 6,660. Achieving this would enable further growth and open the way for a push to a new level at 6,672. An equally important goal for the bulls is to maintain control above 6,682, which would strengthen the buyers' position. In the event of a downward move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must defend the area around 6,648. A breakdown would quickly send the instrument back to 6,638 and open the way to 6,630.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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