30.09.202500:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Chicago in Flames: Trump Restores Order

On September 29, immigration service officers, along with representatives of various law enforcement agencies, entered Chicago to detain illegal immigrants and combat crime. Donald Trump called Chicago the most dangerous city in the world and urged authorities to restore order. Throughout Monday, numerous people were detained, including women with children. Law enforcement continues to patrol the city and carry out mass arrests.

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker commented on the situation. According to him, the role of law enforcement is not to intimidate peaceful residents, and immigration raids do not add order to the city. It should be noted that this is not the first time Trump has used military and law enforcement agencies "to restore order." Earlier in the spring, mass protests erupted across America against Trump's trade policy, which were suppressed with the help of the National Guard. This represents yet another law Trump has violated.

According to U.S. legislation, the National Guard cannot be deployed against American citizens. Police are responsible for maintaining order in cities. However, when police were unable to cope with mass protests and riots, Trump turned to the military for assistance.

In January 2025, Trump announced one of the goals of his second presidential term, which can be summed up in the slogan: "America for Americans." Many fully legal immigrants suddenly found themselves reclassified as illegal, sparking mass roundups. While I do not support illegal migration, it is important to remember that America is considered a democratic country. Mass raids with indiscriminate arrests "pending verification" can hardly be considered a democratic process.

Over the past few days, the U.S. dollar has already found several new reasons for further decline. Donald Trump introduced new import tariffs, the looming government shutdown undermines already fragile trust in the dollar, and the unrest in Chicago could become a trigger for similar events across the country. It is worth noting that this week also brings reports on business activity, job openings, unemployment, and the labor market in the U.S. If this data disappoints markets, demand for the U.S. currency could sink to yearly lows by the end of the week.

EUR/USD Wave Structure:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave markup still depends entirely on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and the policies of the new White House administration. Targets for the current trend may extend up to the 1.2500 area. At present, a corrective Wave 4 may already be complete. The bullish wave structure remains valid. Thus, in the near term, I am considering only buying. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci.

GBP/USD Wave Structure:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has evolved. The pair remains in an upward impulsive segment, but its internal structure has become less clear. If Wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave correction, the structure will normalize, though this would make Wave 4 significantly larger and more complex than Wave 2. In my view, the key reference point now is 1.3341 (127.2% Fibonacci). Two failed attempts to break above this level may indicate that the market is ready for renewed buying.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are more difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If the market situation is uncertain, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction never exists—always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.