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On Tuesday, gold set a new all-time high and appears set to maintain the steady upward trend that has been in place for a month, supported by favorable fundamentals. The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which foresees two more rate cuts before year-end, continues to pressure the dollar and boost the appeal of the precious metal. In addition, geopolitical risks tied to the escalating Russia–Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Growing expectations of further Fed monetary easing, along with persistent demand for safe assets fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, have pushed gold to new record highs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last Wednesday that the rate cuts were necessary for risk management and that inflation volatility rules out a swift normalization of rates. Nevertheless, traders believe that interest rates will be reduced faster than the Fed projects, expecting the short-term policy rate, now at 4.00–4.25%, to fall below 3% by the end of 2026.
As a result, the US dollar dropped sharply, and in combination with stronger demand for safe assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices are climbing to new records. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, fighting has intensified in recent months. On Monday, both sides accused each other of using drones to strike civilian targets.
At the same time, NATO countries reported violations of Estonian, Polish, and Romanian airspace by Russia—claims Moscow denied, saying European states were making unfounded accusations.
Meanwhile, intensified Hamas attacks and rocket launches toward Israel coincided with growing Israeli Defense Forces operations in Gaza, while the Trump administration warned Israel of the risks of annexing the West Bank. These developments largely outweigh any improvement in risk appetite. Even the general increase in market risk sentiment has not dampened the bullish outlook for gold, underscoring positive forecasts and pointing to further upside potential for the precious metal.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's breakout and close above the key $3700 level can be seen as a fresh trigger for the bulls. Moreover, the current rally is not tied to RSI overbought conditions on the daily chart. This, in turn, supports the likelihood of further gains in gold in the near term, suggesting that corrective pullbacks may be viewed as buying opportunities.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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