15.09.202512:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin moves into green zone but encounters red light

Bitcoin remains quite resilient, following an uptrend. However, this growth is fragile, experts warn investors. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US dollar is unstable and leans negative. Against this backdrop, analysts believe that the dollar may require shock therapy for a meaningful recovery.

On Monday, September 15, Bitcoin opened the day with a slight decline, trading near $115,670. At its daily peak, the leading cryptocurrency reached $116,181. According to analysts, BTC has launched a new upward wave, rising above $112,500 and breaking through resistance levels at $113,500 and $114,200.

At the start of the new week, Bitcoin bulls managed to push the price above $115,000 and $116,000, which led to consolidation. Later, Bitcoin pulled back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from the swing low of $110,815 to the high of $116,743.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $115,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. However, on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, a bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $116,000. Experts estimate the nearest resistance in this uptrend lies around $116,000. The next resistance could be around $116,750, potentially pushing BTC toward $117,500. If that level is tested, Bitcoin could continue climbing toward $118,500, with the next obstacle for bulls at $118,800.

If Bitcoin fails to break above the $116,200 resistance zone, a new decline may begin. Immediate support is now seen near $114,900, while major support remains at $113,750 — the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent move from $110,815 to $116,743.

According to analysts, further losses could push Bitcoin down toward $112,500 or even lower, although this is considered an extreme scenario that Bitcoin is likely to avoid.

Bitcoin has also found support from a surge in inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After two weeks of moderate flows, net weekly inflows jumped nearly tenfold at the end of last week — reaching $2.34 billion, the highest since mid-July 2025.

Experts believe the crypto market has momentum heading into Q4 this year. This rally — supported by treasury-backed institutions — is being driven by increased liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and promising regulatory developments in the digital asset space.

Does the US dollar need shock therapy to recover?

In the current climate, the US dollar is finding it increasingly difficult to remain steady. It's under consistent pressure and facing downside risks. According to analysts, a full recovery for the USD may require a shock, not just to the dollar, but to the global economy and financial system as a whole. However, no such major event is on the horizon.

A brief moment of support for the dollar came from the decision to allow Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to attend the September FOMC meeting. At the same time, expectations are growing for further monetary policy easing by the Fed.

This shift in stance comes after a record downward revision in US employment data — wiping out 911,000 jobs from previous estimates — and an unexpected drop in producer price indexes (PPI) in August.

Against this backdrop, the US dollar Index (DXY) has remained in a narrow range of 97–98 points for the past five weeks. This follows a six-month USD downtrend and an unsuccessful attempt at a rebound in July. In this context, a sideways move is seen as a bearish signal for the dollar. Analysts say the limited scope of the current bounce suggests sellers remain in control.

At the same time, the dollar is now hovering near a 13-year uptrend support line. But even staying at this level likely won't prevent further weakness, according to experts.

Market participants are increasingly expecting the Fed to carry out a series of 4–5 rate cuts. Analysts consider this scenario quite realistic. If that happens, the fundamentals will be in place for continued dollar weakness at the start of the new fiscal year.

A reversal of this negative trend may only be possible if there is a major shock in global financial markets. But as of now, there are no clear signs of such a development.