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Today, the market's focus will be on the release of fresh economic data, which will precede the critically important employment numbers to be published next week.
The previously hot topic of trade wars has faded into the background and is unlikely to resurface before the Federal Reserve's meeting next month—unless, of course, the flamboyant US president comes up with something new. Now, investors are concentrating on employment data due next week, preceded by today's quarterly reports on the PCE index and US Q2 GDP.
According to consensus forecasts, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to drop markedly from 3.7% in the previous period to 2.1% in Q2. The core PCE number is also projected to fall significantly, from 3.5% to 2.5%. If the index meets or comes in below forecasts, it will be seen as a positive by the markets—especially US stocks—as a strong signal that consumer inflation is continuing to decelerate, which in turn raises the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.
Another positive could come from US Q2 GDP, which is expected to show robust growth, reversing from a negative -0.5% to a positive 3%. Again, if the result isn't below consensus, it will likely add weight to the prospects of a September Fed rate cut, support rallies in US stocks, and eventually stimulate global markets as well. As for the situation in Russia, it is more specific, since the geopolitics of the Ukraine crisis and sanctions play a distinct internal role there.
Given the likely positive news, the US dollar may come under pressure, but is unlikely to decline significantly since the all-important unemployment report is due next week.
What to expect from the markets today?
As mentioned above, positive news from America could ignite stock markets and push them higher. The dollar may come under pressure as odds increase for a real Fed rate cut. The crypto market, after a local upward bounce, could resume its upward momentum. Crude oil prices are expected to consolidate roughly around current levels.
Overall, I view today's market outlook as positive.
The token has found support at 10,900.00 as it awaits the release of US economic data, which could favor a September Fed rate cut. On this wave, the cryptocurrency could gain support and rise toward 117,170.00, consolidating above 112,370.00. The 113,390.00 level may serve as a buying opportunity.
The token is sitting at 113.45 pending US economic data, which could positively impact the odds of a Fed rate cut in September. On this, the cryptocurrency may gain support and climb to 123.40, consolidating above 113.45. The 114.85 level may serve as a buy point.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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