06.08.202517:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Adjustment of Levels and Targets for the U.S. Session on August 6th

Only the British pound was traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. There were no setups for Momentum trading due to low volatility in the currency market.

The euro showed resilience despite negative economic signals from Germany and the eurozone as a whole. The published data indicated a decline in industrial orders in Germany—a worrying sign for Europe's largest economy and a key driver of European industry.

At the same time, retail sales in the eurozone also fell short of expectations, signaling subdued consumer demand and potential risks for economic growth. Nevertheless, the euro managed to avoid a significant drop. This may be due to several factors. First, investors may have already priced in this negative data. Second, other macroeconomic indicators—such as employment or inflation—may have had a supportive effect.

With no macroeconomic releases scheduled from the U.S. today, market participants' attention is naturally shifting to speeches by senior Federal Reserve officials. The tone and content of remarks by FOMC members Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, and Mary Daly will serve as key indicators of the Fed's future monetary policy. Investors will carefully analyze their comments for clues on the timing and scale of future interest rate cuts. Special attention will be paid to assessments of the current state of the U.S. economy—especially after the recent labor market data.

In case of strong statistics, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1615 may lead to a rise toward 1.1640 and 1.1670
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1565 may lead to a decline toward 1.1530 and 1.1500

GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3325 may lead to a rise toward 1.3355 and 1.3375
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3285 may lead to a decline toward 1.3260 and 1.3215

USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 147.95 may lead to a rise toward 148.25 and 148.50
• Sell on a breakout below 147.60 may lead to a decline toward 147.30 and 146.89

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1619 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1575 followed by a return to this level

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3325 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3285 followed by a return to this level

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6506 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6486 followed by a return to this level

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3775 followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3754 followed by a return to this level