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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD pair has remained unchanged for several months. The formation of an upward trend segment continues, and the news background continues to support all currencies except the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have not yet been achieved: trade deals are being signed reluctantly, and Trump's "One Big Law" will increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market assesses Trump's first six months quite poorly and sees his actions as a threat to American stability and prosperity.
At the moment, wave 3 is presumably still developing, and it may take a much longer form than it has currently. However, its internal structure has acquired a five-wave pattern, which could mean it is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, quotes will continue to rise in the coming months, but in the short term, we may see the formation of a corrective wave sequence — or even just a single wave, which is also possible within a strong uptrend.
The EUR/USD rate rose by 50 basis points on Friday, but overall volatility was low. Yesterday, we saw two unsuccessful attempts to close below the 1.1572 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% on the Fibonacci scale. In my view, this is a strong signal that the first corrective wave has likely completed. According to classic wave theory, there should be three corrective waves, though in some cases there may be five — or even just one. At this stage, I believe the first corrective wave has ended. If that assumption is correct, the pair is likely to rise over the next few days based on wave formation.
The news background has not significantly influenced market sentiment either yesterday or today. Yesterday, market participants learned that U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% in June, while expectations were only +0.1% month-over-month. This report could have supported further dollar gains, but the 1.1572 level held back EUR/USD sellers.
Let me briefly summarize recent U.S. news: Donald Trump resumed pressure on Jerome Powell, the FOMC Chair is now accused of fraud and misuse of funds (though it's clear this is highly unlikely), tariffs have been raised for over 20 countries, no trade deals have been signed, and Trump is planning to impose tariffs of 200% on pharmaceutical imports and 50% on copper imports. With this kind of news backdrop, how can demand for the U.S. dollar be expected to grow? In my opinion, the dollar's recent rally was already something of a miracle. Nonetheless, I had warned that a correction was likely, as a classic three-wave structure is typically followed by a corrective phase.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair is still forming an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy — and there are still no positive developments. The trend segment may extend as far as the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets around 1.1875 (corresponding to 161.8% on the Fibonacci scale) and higher. In the near term, I expect a corrective wave sequence to form, so new euro purchases should be considered only after this corrective structure is complete.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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