25.06.202500:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Is the War Over or Not?

On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump announced the end of the war between Iran and Israel. Notably, he made no mention of the U.S. in this conflict or ceasefire despite having personally ordered strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday. Afterward, the U.S. President declared their complete destruction, and he claimed Iran had been denuclearized. According to Trump, Tehran no longer poses a "nuclear threat" to the world.

However, many experts—and even U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance—have expressed doubts that the nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. Satellite images show that the bombs and missiles struck locations where the sites are believed to be underground, but it remains unclear whether they reached their targets. Iran has admitted the strikes on its facilities but called the damage "insignificant." So whom should we believe?

Additionally, it was reported that Iran launched new missiles at Israel—though this was later labeled a "mistake." Was it a journalistic error or a military one? Israel immediately disregarded the ceasefire announced by Trump and dispatched fighter jets for a retaliatory strike. Despite Trump's appeals on social media not to proceed, Israeli officials declared they would deliver a "symbolic strike." Why and for what purpose? It's unclear. Is there a ceasefire or not? No one seems to know.

Meanwhile, demand for the U.S. dollar continues to decline. Even though many market participants remain skeptical, the Middle East smells of ceasefire. Still, nothing stops the market from reacting to the news. Yesterday, the market responded to the U.S. strike on Iranian facilities and Iran's retaliatory attack on U.S. military bases, particularly in Qatar. On Tuesday, trading has been more subdued, but the Middle East could "explode" again at any moment. And so could the currency market.

As I mentioned earlier, the U.S. has little reason to continue active military operations in Iran, as Trump aims to present himself as a peacemaker to the world. However, nothing prevents Israel and Iran from continuing their hostilities. The euro and pound are on the verge of updating their highs against the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD Wave Structure

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure depends entirely on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 could extend to the 1.25 level. Accordingly, I continue to view buying opportunities with initial targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation. The war between Israel and Iran merely paused the dollar's decline for a couple of weeks.

GBP/USD Wave Structure

The GBP/USD wave structure remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish impulse segment. Under Donald Trump, the markets could experience many more shocks and reversals, which may significantly impact the wave pattern. But for now, the active scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything he can to weaken dollar demand. The targets for upward wave 3 are around 1.3708, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci extension from the supposed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There's never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.