23.06.202500:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The United States brings many important economic events. Additionally, as I have mentioned several times, the ongoing war in the Middle East could greatly influence market sentiment. As a result, I expect considerable market activity over the next five days. However, it is unlikely to be an easy or straightforward week.

Among the economic events, two speeches by Jerome Powell—scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday—stand out immediately. Although the Federal Reserve meeting occurred this past week and no major decisions were made, Powell does not speak frequently. During the weekend, Donald Trump once again referred to Powell as an "idiot" for refusing to lower interest rates. The open confrontation between Trump and Powell continues, although the Fed Chair rarely responds to the U.S. president's remarks.

In addition to Powell's appearances, other noteworthy events include PMI data, existing home sales, durable goods orders, the final estimate of Q1 GDP, the PCE index, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. However, I believe that any news or developments related to the war involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. will take center stage. The problem is that such news may reach the markets very unexpectedly. It's highly unlikely that Trump or the authorities in Israel or Iran will inform the media in advance about imminent strikes. As a result, market direction and momentum may shift abruptly throughout the week.

As for the outlook for the U.S. dollar, I do not believe the Middle East conflict will provide significant support for it. Over the past two weeks, the dollar saw demand three times following reports of conflict escalation—but not once did this result in a trend or an independent bullish wave. And now that the U.S. is a direct participant in the conflict and Iran is threatening retaliation, demand for the dollar is unlikely to rise. In my view, the formation of bullish trend segments will continue.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still completely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider buying positions with initial targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but currently, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. With Trump, markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could seriously impact wave structures, but at the moment, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything possible to reduce demand for the dollar. The targets of the upward wave 3 are near 1.3708, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

My Core Analytical Principles:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in price direction never exists. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.