20.06.202511:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Update on US stock market on June 20. SP500 and NASDAQ open with gains

Yesterday, US financial markets were closed. US stock indices ended the electronic trade mixed: the S&P 500 slipped by 0.03%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.10%.

European stock indices rose, the dollar weakened, and oil prices fell after the White House dismissed rumors that the US was close to joining Israel in launching strikes against Iran.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed 0.4%, though it remained on track for its first weekly loss since early April. Travel and leisure stocks led the gains, while energy stocks declined. Futures on the S&P 500 ticked higher following Thursday's 0.9% drop, when US markets were shut for the June 16th holiday. Brent crude dropped 2.6%, curbing its gains from earlier in the week. Treasury yields held steady, while the dollar index moved lower for the second consecutive day.

Traders were on edge after reports surfaced that senior US officials were preparing for a potential strike on Iran in the coming days. However, the White House clarified that President Donald Trump would make a decision within two weeks and that a diplomatic resolution remained a strong possibility. Meanwhile, Israel launched additional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on Thursday and warned that its actions could bring down Tehran's leadership — both sides now await a decision from the US president.

The escalating Middle East tensions remain a major concern for global equity markets. In this atmosphere of extreme uncertainty, traders are anxiously weighing potential outcomes. The risk of a full-scale conflict in the region could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. Still, there is hope for a diplomatic solution that might ease tensions and bring stability back to the markets. President Trump's forthcoming decision will be pivotal in determining the future of this crisis. Until there is clarity, market volatility will likely stay elevated, and traders are advised to proceed with particular caution.

According to Capital Economics Ltd, some extreme scenarios stemming from deeper US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict could push oil prices to $130–$150 per barrel, especially if Iran responds forcefully. Such developments could halt further easing of monetary policy by central banks. Recently, the Federal Reserve downgraded its growth forecasts for the year and projected higher inflation.

The recent airstrikes pose risks to the global energy landscape, yet for now, the potential for a major spike in oil prices appears limited. "Markets typically ignore geopolitical risks until a fire breaks out — and right now, they show no signs of pricing in a worst-case scenario," analysts noted.

In Japan, the core consumer inflation rate accelerated to a new two-year high, just as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba prepares for summer elections and the Bank of Japan assesses the country's inflation trajectory.

Technical outlook for S&P 500 The main goal for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at 5,975. A successful push above this level could initiate further growth and pave the way for a move toward 5,986. Equally important will be defending the 6,013 mark, which would strengthen bullish control. On the downside, if risk appetite fades away, buyers must assert themselves around the 5,962 area. A break below that level could swiftly push the index back to 5,946 and potentially open the path toward 5,933.