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Oil and gas continue to play by the rules of big politics. Every Trump statement, every Federal Reserve decision, and every new move from China is like a new card in a complex energy game. On Tuesday, markets were not just waiting for the API report – they're waiting for confirmation that the world isn't sliding into a new phase of global confrontation. This means any data will be interpreted through fear and hope.
Brent rebounded from support around $66, but it looks more like a pause than a bull victory. The American stock arena is burning with nervousness: trade tensions with China have resurfaced, and Donald Trump, the consummate showman, is attacking the Fed and Jerome Powell personally.
His statement that the U.S. economy could slow without rate cuts sounded like public pressure on the central bank. The mere possibility of Powell's removal from office has shaken even the calmest investors.
Any slowdown in the U.S. is automatically negative for oil prices. Given that oil is a commodity of energy and sentiment, its vulnerability to sharp swings in the stock market is especially pronounced.
And here comes China. A new round of tariff measures has even hit tankers: Chinese-made and -operated supertankers will now face additional levies when entering U.S. ports. This isn't just administrative – it's a logistical blow that could echo across the global energy market.
Meanwhile, the Asian giant is hitting back. Chinese energy company CNOOC has signed a five-year LNG supply contract with ADNOC, sending a message: if the U.S. doesn't want to sell, there are other suppliers.
In parallel, Saudi Aramco has partnered with EV maker BYD, which is a clear nod toward the future as the oil monarchy adapts to the global "green transition."
Changes are also occurring on the Indian front: OPEC's share of Indian oil imports has dropped to a two-year low. The direct cause is more affordable Russian oil, which India continues to buy in large volumes.
The API report on U.S. stockpiles is to be released on Tuesday. A Reuters poll suggests a drawdown in crude and gasoline stocks, with a rise in distillates. The market awaits confirmation, as even a hint of a deficit could bring the bulls back into play.
Brent is trying to consolidate above a local descending resistance – a positive technical signal. If this holds, the next challenge will be the $68.5–68.9 zone – a strong cluster that has repeatedly capped price growth.
However, risks remain. If the market fails to hold above $66, the next support is around $63–63.7. This is the lower boundary of a critical range, and a break below it could trigger a cascading sell-off – especially amid today's tense global agenda.
Gas has entered a critical zone. The $3–3.159 range serves as support and a potential "launchpad" for an upward correction. The RSI on the 4-hour chart shows oversold conditions, suggesting a favorable moment for a technical rebound.
However, gas bulls remain silent: the asset lost its nearest uptrend last week. This opens the door to further downside toward the next long-term trend. While a local bounce is likely, the structure still leans bearish.
Key resistance levels on the way up: the local descending trendline and a previously broken support level.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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