03.03.202502:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A significant number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday, meaning economic reports will greatly impact currency pairs. Business activity indices in the manufacturing sector will be released for the UK, Germany, the EU, and the US. Each of these indices holds its own importance; however, the US ISM index is expected to carry the most weight. Additionally, the EU will publish its February Consumer Price Index, an important economic indicator. Therefore, Monday is anticipated to be a highly volatile trading day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

In terms of fundamental events, nothing major is set for Monday itself. However, a key incident over the weekend could strongly influence the market. On Saturday night, a press conference was held at the White House with Presidents Trump and Zelensky. Unfortunately, the two leaders were unable to reach an agreement. The dialogue resembled more of an argument, and the deal they had come to Washington to sign was ultimately not completed. Zelensky left in frustration, and Trump immediately moved to block all financial and military aid to Ukraine. We believe this event could affect the forex market as early as the market opening, or during the Asian session on Monday.

General Conclusions:

Overall, both currency pairs are likely to continue declining on the first trading day of the week, as most factors suggest a downturn. However, traders should be cautious about potential market gaps at the open and high volatility during the Asian session. Throughout the day, economic reports will shape market sentiment, making Monday's movements somewhat unpredictable. Based on technical analysis, both the euro and the pound are expected to decline.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.