25.02.202507:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on February 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday, and all of them are of secondary importance. At first glance, Germany's GDP report might seem significant, but this release is actually the third and final estimate for the fourth quarter. While the actual figure may be revised upward, even an improvement to -0.1% would still indicate economic contraction. Given the current state of the German economy, it is unlikely that there will be robust growth figures. Therefore, this report is not expected to provide support for the euro. In the UK, the EU, and the U.S., there are no notable economic reports planned, not even secondary ones.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Tuesday, several key events will take place, including speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, namely Huw Pill and Isabel Schnabel, as well as Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan. However, as we have previously noted, the market currently has no urgent questions regarding monetary policy, as all three central banks have clearly communicated their positions. The only potential change could come from the BoE, which may reassess its stance on interest rates in light of the latest inflation report. It is important to mention that the BoE should now prioritize concerns about economic growth over inflation. Nevertheless, Pill's speech, as the Chief Economist of the BoE, stands out as the most intriguing fundamental event of the day.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, low volatility is the most likely scenario. Fundamental drivers are expected to remain weak, and macroeconomic data is predicted to be even weaker. Currently, the British pound is experiencing a local upward trend, while the euro seems to be rising without solid justification. We anticipate that these local trends will soon come to an end, as there are no strong reasons—particularly for the euro—to sustain its growth.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.