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The publication of inflation data in the United States led to a weakening of the US dollar, but the market returned to its original position yesterday, after which it stood still. Although some fluctuations are observed, their scale is not only incredibly modest but there is also no result since everything is still returning to its original position. Perhaps, there is nothing surprising in this, because no one intends to take risks before the FOMC meeting. Moreover, there is no complete certainty about its results.
Nevertheless, the pound has a good chance of growth in the morning. The UK's unemployment data, which may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%, should help it in this. The fact of the unemployment reduction is important, not the scale of this process. Nevertheless, one should not expect any serious growth. Due to the complete uncertainty about the outcome of tomorrow's meeting and the associated fear of risk, the growth will be rather symbolic.
Unemployment rate (UK):
Most likely, the euro will not grow, but decline, and apparently, just in the direction of strengthening the US dollar. There will be several reasons for this. One of them may be industrial production in the euro area, the growth rate of which should slow down from 5.2% to 2.9%. Such a strong slowdown in an industry largely reflects the general loss of economic dynamics, which is an extremely negative factor that may well play into the weakening of the position of the European currency.
Industrial production (Europe):
The result will be exactly the same as yesterday. That is, the pound will then return to its original position. This will happen already during the American trading session. A factor in the growth of the US dollar may be the producer price index in the United States, which should grow from 8.6% to 9.2%. This means that inflation, which has already reached a record level since the summer of 1982, is likely to continue to grow. In other words, the Fed only has more reasons to move to a tighter monetary policy as soon as possible. And it is quite possible that it will be announced tomorrow.
Producer Price Index (United States):
The EUR/USD pair has changed its corrective course to a flat, where the process of accumulation of trading forces has been observed for the second week. Traders consider the levels of 1.1260/1.1355 as the borders of stagnation, trading according to the breakdown method. As a result, an outgoing pulse will be received.
The GBP/USD pair is moving within the base of the downward trend, where the level of 1.3165 serves as support. So in order to prolong the trend to new price levels, the quote needs to stay below 1.3165 in a four-hour period. Otherwise, the formation of a lateral amplitude cannot be excluded.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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