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As promised this Monday, we return to consider the technical picture for the dollar/yen currency pair. However, although this article is designated as technical analysis, let's briefly talk about the most important events that await this currency pair and the market as a whole. Today, it is worth highlighting the publication of revised US GDP data for the second quarter, as well as initial applications for unemployment benefits. The publication of both designated reports will take place at 13:30 London time. I do not exclude that these releases will make changes in the price dynamics of USD/JPY. However, as has been repeatedly written in previous materials, this week's main event will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
Market participants are eager to know when the US Federal Reserve will begin to wind down its large-scale quantitative easing (QE) program. It will be the main point of the speech at the Jerome Powell symposium. If market participants receive a signal that the curtailment of incentives will begin in the very near future, by the end of this year, the USD/JPY pair may demonstrate a significant strengthening. However, the probability of such a step in the Fed's monetary policy is already partly embedded in the US currency price. Nevertheless, to hear the specifics from the mouth of the head of the Fed, and even on such a serious platform as the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, is worth a lot.
Daily
After forming four consecutive candles of the Doji variety with long shadows in both directions, the pair moved to growth. It seems that this was a consolidation, which usually occurs before the start of a stable directional price movement. Whether this will happen in the current situation, we will find out only after Powell's speech and the reaction of market participants to it. When writing the article, the pair breaks through the 50 simple moving average, which for several days served as a kind of barrier for the pair and did not let it go higher. If the rate rises above 50 MA and is fixed above this moving, a rollback can open long positions. Now the pair is trading near a very strong technical level of 110.20. If the growth continues, we are looking for signals for sales on the approach to the resistance of sellers near 110.80. The appearance of bearish candle signals near this mark on this or smaller time intervals can be perceived as a technical basis for opening sales. As for opening long positions, they potentially look good after a short-term decline to the price zone of 110.00-109.75. If the pair is fixed under the most important psychological level of 110 yen per dollar, the ascending scenario will be under a large and bold question mark. However, it had happened more than once that the USD/JPY pair circled 110.00 for a long time and only chose the further direction after some time. So it is not the worst option to take a wait-and-see position and stay out of the market for now.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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