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Although a new batch of macroeconomic data published on Thursday indicated further progress in the US economic recovery, this did not boost optimism in the market. A similar situation is in the stock market. As many companies unveil their earnings report for the second quarter, traders close their positions in order to lock in profits from the previous rally
Often, the trend to sell on good news turns into a general pressure on markets. At the moment, the situation is not quite relevant for such a scenario as investors are focusing on the comments of Jerome Powell to maintain a dovish approach to the regulator's policy.
Jerome Powell's testimony
The head of the Federal Reserve on Thursday faced the same acute questions in Congress about inflation and banking regulation. His position remained unchanged. He made it clear that the Fed will act aggressively if inflation continues to rise. However, hiking rates will disrupt the current recovery, which the Fed is trying to stimulate.
The inflationary jump will weaken by itself. Everyone is interested in this: both the US presidential administration and Jerome Powell, who intends to be re-elected for the next term.
The Federal Reserve has not yet made a decision on how it will cut the balance sheet. At the next meeting, members of the FOMC Committee will discuss the asset purchase program and ways to reduce it.
As for the threats to the economic recovery, Powell has currently identified two main ones; cyber risks, which the Fed spends a lot of resources on, and the coronavirus pandemic. New strains amid a low rate of vaccination can undermine economic and financial stability.
Naturally, there are different opinions in the FOMC about inflation, methods of combating it, and monetary policy. However, Powell's position is the same: there will be no changes in monetary policy until the end of the year.
The US dollar index returned some of its early losses. Its growth in recent sessions is largely due to the fact that investors have begun to assess the US dollar's prospects more optimistically amid a favorable assessment of the economy by the Fed. As Powell noted, the United States is heading for strong labor market growth and the highest GDP in 7 years.
Now the US dollar's prospects are bright. In order to break through the next level, buyers need to push the US dollar back to the level of 92.80 and consolidate above it. If the monthly highs are broken out, then it may jump to 93.00 and then to the level of 93.50 recorded at the end of March.
GBP may rise
Inflation in the UK has remained above the target of 2% for the second month in a row. By the end of the year, according to some data, consumer prices may reach a peak – just above 3%. The regulator tends to ignore the acceleration of inflation. Like the Fed, it considers high inflation to be a temporary factor.
Meanwhile, investors focused their attention on the statement of one of the Bank of England's politicians, Michael Saunders. It seems that the central bank is considering the probability of early termination of its bond-buying program due to an unexpectedly sharp increase in inflation.
This means that the UK is also approaching the moment when it will be necessary to start a forced curtailment of the bond-buying program. This is a strong driver for the pound sterling. Investors are beginning to price in the reduction of the bond-buying program in the quote, pushing the pound sterling up. According to Sanders, the GBP/USD pair jumped by 60 pips to an intraday high.
The pound sterling may also increase as the UK authorities are ready to ease quarantine restrictions on July 19, although there is a fairly strong increase in the cases of a new strain of coronavirus in the country. Such a decision is made by the government based on the fact that vaccination in the country is proceeding at an active pace and the number of hospitalizations and overall death toll are under control.
Now the British currency is mixed. It is currently trading with a slight bearish bias. The support levels are located at 1.3800, 1.3750, and 1.3730. The resistance levels are at 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3940, and 1.4000.
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