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The U.S. Presidential election is in two weeks, and this keeps the dollar in a rather tight framework. The gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is still decent, although the Democrat's lead has narrowed slightly last week. The main event this week is likely to be the second presidential debate. This gives Trump a chance to make a good leap forward and close the gap.
This turn of events is likely to upset the markets as Trump has the opportunity to challenge the election, which is uncertainty and excitement. Meanwhile, Biden's victory in the debate is a kind of balm for the markets.
Today there are aggressive sales in the dollar. It should be noted that the USD index continues its downward trend since September 25. It is noteworthy that at the same time, the likelihood of a complete victory for the Democratic candidate began to grow.
Markets don't seem to believe Trump will be able to close the gap with Biden after the debate. These expectations may be the main reason for the greenback's decline this week. The nearest target for the dollar index is 93.00 points.
The US calendar this week is not particularly remarkable. Traders will be looking at new home sales, the Fed's BeigeBook, and of course the weekly labor market data.
Today's data from the PRC left a mixed impression on the markets. Weak quarterly GDP growth (4.9% versus a projected 5.2% increase) is not quite in line with industrial growth in September, which exceeded expectations (6.9% versus a forecast of 5.8%). Retail sales also jumped 3.3%, while markets expected a more modest increase of 1.8%.
Note that the dollar decline today was also influenced by the revived hopes of investors regarding an agreement between Democrats and Republicans on fiscal support measures for the American economy.
On Monday, market players are studying the speeches of the heads of two world regulators - the ECB and the Fed. In both speeches, signals for further stimulating the economy are possible.
The ECB rate cut will deal a serious blow to the euro positions. However, the euro took full advantage of the dollar's fall across the entire spectrum of the market on Monday. The EUR/USD pair broke through the strong resistance at 1.1755. If it manages to fix itself above the value of 1.1780, it will strengthen the positive dynamics.
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