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The US dollar is rising, Treasury yields are climbing — and Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to fall. That split personality is driving crypto market dynamics.
Treasury yields
Fresh US inflation data came in hotter than expected, strengthening the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher. Markets are once again talking about the possibility of Fed tightening rather than easing. That is a classic headwind for Bitcoin: higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a token in an ETF, and capital tends to rotate into bonds.
On Thursday Bitcoin fell for a fourth session in a row, slipping back below $80,000. Risk appetite was also dented by rising Middle East tensions: Brent jumped above $107/bbl, while equities and bonds sold off after the inflation print. The pullback so far remains within Bitcoin's familiar February?onward range of $60,000–80,000, but repeated failed attempts to hold above $80,000 highlight uneven demand.
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500
Inside the crypto market, the picture is mixed. A wave of short?liquidations on Ethereum triggered a brief rally on Friday: Ethereum jumped at the fastest pace since the prior surge three weeks ago, while Bitcoin gained less than 4%. Coinglass data show about $300 million in Ethereum short positions were liquidated in a day, versus $212 million in Bitcoin. That divergence suggests speculators have shifted interest to other digital assets while BTC/USD stalls.
Against that backdrop the $320 million exploit of the Liquid Network is a secondary story. Formally it helps Bitcoin ETFs: scared retail is moving funds into regulated vehicles. But ETF inflows don't outweigh the pressure from a stronger dollar and rising yields — macro remains the dominant driver.
Structural notes Wintermute points out that derivatives markets still tell a bullish year?end story despite the current consolidation and fading momentum. There's also a structural change in mining supply: US miners' compute capacity fell 18% by October 2025 as sites were repurposed into data centers, but that freed capacity has migrated to China and Russia and has had little impact on BTC/USD prices.
Bottom line Bitcoin is being tugged by several forces at once: a firmer dollar, rising Treasury yields, localized speculative demand for Ether, and targeted ETF flows after the hack. Which force will win the tug?of?war remains uncertain.
Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD still faces the risk of activating an Anti?Turtles reversal pattern. That would require a confirmed test of support at $76,350, which would set up shorts. Re?engaging buyers makes sense only after a move back above $79,850.
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