26.06.202612:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: analysis and outlook. Vessel attack in Strait of Hormuz supports dollar, capping gold's upside

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build an intraday recovery despite the US dollar retreating from the May 2025 high reached yesterday amid a reassessment of expectations for further Fed tightening. That has provided some support to the precious metal. Nevertheless, the absence of a sustained upside impulse keeps bulls cautious about adding to positions after the drop to levels near the November 2025 lows seen on Wednesday.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data released on Thursday, the PCE price index accelerated year-on-year in May from 3.8% to 4.1%. The core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose to 3.4%. Market participants believe inflation may have peaked or be near its peak last month, given the recent fall in oil prices back to pre-war levels following the temporary US-Iran agreement. Against this backdrop, expectations that the Fed will hold policy steady strengthened, prompting profit-taking in the dollar.

At the same time, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows the probability of at least one rate hike by year?end still exceeds 80%. Those expectations were supported by comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who noted that underlying inflationary pressures remain excessive and show unfavorable dynamics. New York Fed President John Williams also pushed back his timetable for inflation's return to the 2% target, stressing that inflation remains elevated even if it may begin to decline this year.

Meanwhile, reports that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore?flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz have increased doubts about the durability of the temporary US?Iran accord. That may limit dollar weakness and constrain gold's upside. Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains benign to bearish sentiment, supporting the likelihood of fresh selling at higher levels.

From a technical viewpoint, bearish sentiment persists despite the recovery attempt. Bulls need to first clear the 20?day SMA, around $4,250, to have a chance of further gains — and to take control of the market, they must break above the 200?day SMA. Conversely, a consolidation of prices below $4,000 would confirm the short?term downtrend. Oscillators are negative, indicating the bears have the upper hand.

Note also that the 200?day SMA is sloping upward, which signals a long?term price uptrend for the precious metal.