Legenda tim InstaSpot!
Legenda! Anda pikir legenda adalah retorika yang bombastis? Lalu, bagaimana menyebut seorang pria, seorang Asia pertama yang memenangkan kejuaraan catur dunia junior pada usia 18 tahun, dan yang menjadi Grandmaster India pertama pada usia 19 tahun? Itulah awal perjalanan yang sulit dalam meraih gelar Juara Dunia bagi Viswanathan Anand, pria yang menjadi bagian dari sejarah catur untuk selamanya. Sekarang, satu lagi legenda masuk ke dalam tim InstaSpot!
Borussia merupakan salah satu klub sepakbola paling terkenal di Jerman, yang telah berulang kali membuktikan pada para penggemarnya: semangat kompetisi dan kepemimpinan pasti akan mengarah pada kesuksesan. Lakukan trading dengan cara yang sama seperti para profesional olahraga: percaya diri dan aktif. Gunakan "kunci" dari Borussia FC dan jadilah yang terdepan bersama InstaSpot!
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD continues to become more complex. There is still no reason to speak of the cancellation of the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year. However, the trend structure has now taken on a corrective form. From a long-term perspective, wave C is expected to develop, with its low likely positioned below the low of wave A. At present, such a significant decline in the euro is difficult to believe in, given that the conflict in the Middle East has ended. However, demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong, meaning that the anticipated wave C may ultimately develop into a complete structure.
On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. If this assumption is correct, wave 3 is currently unfolding and has already taken on a clearly defined five-wave form. Once this structure is completed, the instrument may shift into an upward wave sequence. However, according to the current wave count, wave 5 still remains to be formed.
The EUR/USD pair lost another 40 basis points on Tuesday and has now fallen by a total of 200 points since last Wednesday. In my view, this is more than enough to consider the Federal Reserve meeting fully priced in.
Let me remind you that a week ago, the new FOMC Chair, Kevin Warsh, stated that the regulator's number one priority remains combating elevated inflation. He noted that the Federal Reserve has been unable to bring consumer price inflation under control for five years and that the time has come to put an end to it. Naturally, the market interpreted these remarks as a signal that the Fed may not simply carry out one round of monetary tightening but could continue raising rates until inflation returns to the 2% target.
In my opinion, there will be no full-scale tightening cycle, and Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish stance because he had little alternative. Had Mr. Warsh stated that the Fed was not prepared to fight inflation, he would immediately have faced a wave of criticism. Instead, he demonstrated the regulator's commitment to combating elevated price growth, while his actions may ultimately differ from his words.
First, the conflict in the Middle East has been resolved, and there are currently no clear reasons to expect a renewed escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains open, allowing oil supplies to flow into global markets again, which has already pushed oil prices lower. As a result, inflationary pressures should stop accelerating and may eventually begin to ease. The Federal Reserve may need one or two rate hikes, but only as a temporary measure to contain the current inflationary impulse.
Second, Mr. Warsh is considered a prot?g? of Donald Trump, who is unlikely to welcome tighter monetary policy. Consequently, I do not expect aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve under Warsh's leadership. If inflation begins to moderate gradually, the Fed will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach in order to avoid putting unnecessary pressure on economic growth.
Third, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin raising rates before autumn. A great deal can happen before then, potentially influencing the regulator's outlook and policy stance.
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a broader upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend phase. In my opinion, the current environment may offer an opportunity to consider long positions, but the pair could still fall well below the 1.1400 level as part of wave C. If this scenario proves correct, it may be prudent to wait for wave 5 of C to develop before considering new positions. Moreover, the increasingly positive geopolitical backdrop is no longer acting as a headwind for the U.S. dollar.
On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to continue toward targets around 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C corrective structure is complete, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.
*Analisis pasar yang diposting disini dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan Anda namun tidak untuk memberi instruksi trading.
Tinjauan analitis InstaSpot akan membuat Anda menyadari sepenuhnya tren pasar! Sebagai klien InstaSpot, Anda dilengkapi dengan sejumlah besar layanan gratis untuk trading yang efisien.
