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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3454–1.3466, but then returned to this zone. Thus, the downward movement may resume toward the corrective levels of 1.3408 and 1.3349. Consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level would favor the British pound and the resumption of growth toward the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539.
The wave structure shifted to a bearish outlook last week. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous peak. Geopolitical factors are currently supporting the bears, as the market has still not seen the signing of even a temporary memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. At the moment, the ceasefire remains in place, but the situation is gradually shifting toward escalation and a prolonged confrontation.
Thursday's news background once again supported the bears, although the bulls managed to withstand the pressure. UK business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors failed to impress in May. In particular, the Services PMI dropped sharply from 52.7 to 47.9 points. Naturally, traders could not ignore such a significant decline in the indicator. The market reaction was not particularly strong, but the pound remained under pressure for most of the day once again.
Earlier today, another disappointing report was released in the United Kingdom. In addition to the weak inflation, unemployment, and business activity reports for the pound, retail sales volumes in April declined by 1.3% month-on-month versus forecasts of -0.6%. Thus, all four of the most important UK reports released this week have put pressure on the bulls and the pound. The British currency is being supported only by the fact that Iran and the United States still appear to be moving toward each other and toward signing at least a temporary agreement that would allow more detailed and comprehensive negotiations to continue. This week, information suggesting that negotiations are progressing and that chances for an agreement remain has emerged at least three times. There has been no official confirmation yet, but the market also cannot ignore this information. And this factor is already working against the bears.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and reversed in favor of the pound, advancing toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of the decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would allow for further growth of the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 17,032, while the number of Short positions decreased by 3,817. The gap between Long and Short positions now effectively stands at 79 thousand versus 123 thousand. For six consecutive weeks in February and March, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced long positions, leading to a significant imbalance between Long and Short positions. In recent months, bears have dominated the market, which raises no questions given the geopolitical environment.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but the latest news suggests that a full ceasefire remains far away and that the conflict could resume at any moment.
United Kingdom
United States
The economic calendar for May 22 contains only two events, both of which are considered secondary. Therefore, the influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be weak or absent.
Selling positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. These trades may still be kept open. Buying positions may be considered after consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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